Xkcd dating pool equation

We go after it with remarkable ambition and even try to calculate the odds of finding that special someone, that invaluable human mirror who will “tear apart your ego a little bit, show you your obstacles and addictions, break your heart open so new light can get in.” But in a world of seven billion, how likely is it, really, that each of us will find that mythic other?

That’s precisely what NASA-roboticist-turned-comic-creator Randall Munroe explores in a chapter of Acknowledging that this proposition is problematic — “a nightmare,” he approaches the premise that each of us has “one randomly-assigned perfect soul mate” with a scientist’s vital balance of skepticism and openness, and a side of a cartoonist’s snark: We’ll assume your soul mate is set at birth. A hundred billion or so humans have ever lived, but only seven billion are alive now (which gives the human condition a 93% mortality rate).

xkcd dating pool equation-10

They’d want to join the club, so they’d get together with another lonely person and stage a fake soul mate encounter.

They’d marry, hide their relationship problems, and struggle to present a happy face to their friends and family.

See, if it’s possible for your soul mate to be in the distant past, then it also has to be possible for soul mates to be in the distant future.

After all, To make matters somewhat less messy, Munroe assumes that your soul mate is your contemporary and, with an unnecessarily judgmental remark how this would “keep things from getting creepy,” that your age difference is only a few years.

If only 1% of people use the service, then 1% of that 1% would find their match through this system — one in ten thousand.

Given all the stress and pressure, some people would fake it.(I’m pretty introverted, so for me that’s definitely a generous estimate.) If 10 percent of them are close to your age, that’s around 50,000 people in a lifetime.Given that you have 500,000,000 potential soul mates, it means you’ll only find true love in one lifetime out of 10,000.Just for reference, since I haven't seen the answer explained yet. Then:ti = (T/2) 7 tf = (2*T) - 14(b) Integrating an exponential is an exponential, sodating pool size = -20 * (Exp[-tf * 0.05]-Exp[-ti * 0.05])(c) Take the derivative w.r.t.T of the solution to part (b) to find the extremum of the dating pool size and set it to zero and solve for T:20 * Exp[-0.05 * tf] - 0.5 * Exp[-0.05 * ti] = 0Then: T = (2/3) * (7 20 * Log(4 * Exp[7/10])) ~ 32.5 years Strictly speaking, we've only shown that 32.5 years is an extremum, but since the dating pool function is everywhere concave, it follows that the only extremum is a maximum.So maybe only rich kids would be able to afford to sit around on Soul Mate Roulette.

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